Diabetes study finds health risks rise over a decade

Ten years after a type 2 diabetes diagnosis, the estimated likelihood of death or developing either chronic kidney disease or heart failure reached 55%. The same combined measure was 33% after five years. Researchers say the pattern supports addressing diabetes and related health conditions early and comprehensively.

The observational study examined 1,617,508 U.S. patients whose diabetes was diagnosed between Jan. 1, 2010, and March 31, 2024. Their average age was 59, and 51% were women. High blood pressure affected 68% of the group, while 72% had unhealthy levels of cholesterol or other blood fats.

Kidney disease was the first complication for 19.0% of patients during the initial five years, compared with 8.3% who developed heart failure first. The conditions also frequently followed one another. After heart failure appeared, the five-year chance of kidney disease was 42%. When kidney disease came first, the corresponding likelihood of heart failure was 23%. Because the research tracked real-world records rather than assigning treatments, it cannot show that diabetes directly caused these outcomes, and selection bias may have affected the findings.